Will the Erdős–Straus Conjecture be solved before 2027?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick0.1%$0.00
- No99.9%$1.00
The forecaster strongly favors one outcome, so we can’t open a market for this question. You can still create this market yourself.
Forecast reasoning
Multiple claimed proofs emerged in 2026, but as of October 2026 the conjecture remains officially open with no peer-reviewed complete proof published. Bradford's February 2026 preprint claiming a solution was flagged in August 2026 for leaving the covering system unverified, and parametric approaches only resolve special cases rather than all integers.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if a complete, valid proof of the Erdős–Straus Conjecture is formally accepted (published in a peer-reviewed journal or officially acknowledged as correct by the mathematical community, such as via the Erdős Problems registry or equivalent authoritative mathematical body) strictly after 2026-10-08T13:09:26.479Z and at or before 2027-01-01T00:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if no such accepted proof is published or formally acknowledged within the same window. Clarifications: - A preprint alone (e.g., an arXiv submission) does not constitute a solution; the proof must have received peer-reviewed publication or explicit formal acceptance by the mathematical community within the window. - The conjecture in question is: for every integer n ≥ 2, the equation 4/n = 1/x + 1/y + 1/z has a solution in positive integers x, y, z (Erdős Problems #242).
Jan 1, 2027, 12:00 AM UTC