Will Real Madrid beat FC Barcelona on Oct 25, 2026 (after 90 min + stoppage time only)?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes, Real Madrid win23.3%$0.23
- No (draw or Barça win)76.8%$0.77
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Forecast reasoning
Barcelona's dominant form (9-0 record, 6-point lead, 23 consecutive home wins) and recent head-to-head superiority (6 wins in last 7 meetings) heavily favor the hosts, while Real Madrid's absences of Vinícius Júnior and Courtois significantly weaken their chances despite recent wins against weaker opponents. The Opta supercomputer assigns Barcelona 54.4% win probability, leaving Real Madrid just 23% to win outright in 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes, Real Madrid win": Wins if the official final score of the LaLiga Matchday 10 match Barcelona vs Real Madrid, played at Spotify Camp Nou on October 25, 2026 (kick-off 20:00 UTC), recorded strictly after 2026-10-25T15:20:29.295Z and at or before 2026-10-26T04:00:00.000Z, shows Real Madrid with more goals than Barcelona at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time (i.e., the result determined at the conclusion of regulation time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootout). - "No (draw or Barça win)": Wins if the official final score of the same match, within the same window, shows Barcelona with more goals than Real Madrid, or both teams level, at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Clarifications: - The result is determined solely by the score at the end of regulation time (90 minutes plus any added stoppage time); goals or outcomes from extra time or a penalty shootout are not considered. - If the match is postponed, abandoned, or not completed within the settlement window, neither outcome is resolved on the basis of an incomplete result.
Oct 25, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC