Will it rain more than 5mm in London on Oct 25, 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes7.8%$0.08
- No92.3%$0.92
We could not pin down how this would settle, so there is no market to trade. The odds stand.
Forecast reasoning
Most forecasts predict 0-2mm of rainfall on October 25, with only one outlier model showing 7.7mm; the Met Office expects sunny spells with at most one or two showers. The 5mm threshold is substantially higher than typical precipitation amounts predicted across multiple sources.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the total rainfall recorded at an official London weather observation station (such as Heathrow, St. James's Park, or Northolt) strictly exceeds 5 mm accumulated over the measurement period strictly after 2026-10-24T23:00:00Z and at or before 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z. - "No": Wins if the total rainfall recorded at an official London weather observation station (such as Heathrow, St. James's Park, or Northolt) is 5 mm or less accumulated over the measurement period strictly after 2026-10-24T23:00:00Z and at or before 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z. Clarifications: - The rainfall total is the cumulative precipitation (in millimetres) measured at the closest available official Met Office surface observation station for London over the window defined above. If multiple stations report, the value from the primary London station (preferring Heathrow EGLL or St. James's Park) is used.
Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC