Will the AAA national average regular gas price reach $5 by end of November 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick4.5%$0.05
- No95.5%$0.96
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Forecast reasoning
Gas prices would need to surge $0.73 in 38 days to reach $5, but current AAA data shows prices at $4.27-$4.29 and declining, with EIA projecting $4.20 for November and crude oil near $100/barrel providing limited upward pressure. The highest recorded price was $5.39 in June 2022, but structural factors including winter fuel blends and expected 2027 price declines around $3.60 make a sharp spike unlikely in this timeframe.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the AAA national average regular gasoline price, as published on the AAA Gas Prices daily tracker (gasprices.aaa.com), reaches or exceeds $5.00 per gallon on any single day strictly after 2026-10-23T15:27:19.616Z and at or before 2026-12-01T00:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if the AAA national average regular gasoline price does not reach $5.00 per gallon on any single day within the same window. Clarifications: - The price used is the AAA national average for regular (unleaded) gasoline, updated daily by the Oil Price Information Service (OPIS), as shown on gasprices.aaa.com. The date-stamped daily figure is the reference value for each calendar day.
Dec 1, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC