Will FC Barcelona beat Real Madrid on Oct 25, 2026 (after 90 min + stoppage time only)?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes58.3%$0.58
- No41.8%$0.42
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Forecast reasoning
Barcelona enters as heavy favorites after winning 6 of their last 7 Clásicos under manager Hansi Flick and leading La Liga by 6 points, though they're dealing with multiple injury concerns including Dani Olmo, Jules Kounde, and Eric García. Real Madrid arrives undefeated in October with four consecutive wins and Mbappé in form with 12 goals, but face their own absences with Vinicius Jr., Rodrygo, and Ferland Mendy unavailable. The 58% probability reflects Barcelona's home-field advantage and ...
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if FC Barcelona's official final score is strictly greater than Real Madrid's official final score in the LaLiga Matchday 10 fixture played at Spotify Camp Nou, with the result determined after 90 minutes plus referee-added stoppage time only (no extra time or penalty shootout), and the match takes place strictly after 2026-10-25T15:18:10.323Z and concludes at or before 2026-10-26T04:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if the official final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time shows Real Madrid winning or the match ending in a draw, or if the match is abandoned, postponed, or not played within the window strictly after 2026-10-25T15:18:10.323Z and at or before 2026-10-26T04:00:00.000Z. Clarifications: - The result is based solely on the scoreline at the end of 90 minutes plus referee-added stoppage time; any outcome determined by extra time or a penalty shootout does not affect resolution. - If the match is postponed or abandoned before full time, "No" wins.
Oct 25, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC