Chiefs favored despite Denver's three-game winning streak and 3-0 home record against Kansas City, as quantitative models cite the Chiefs' superior offensive efficiency (6.4 vs 4.7 yards per play), point differential, and turnover margin advantages. Denver's offensive struggles (23rd in EPA per play) and Kansas City's dominant 31-10 season-opening victory weigh against the home team despite injury concerns to Chiefs cornerback L'Jarius Sneed.