Will Pope Leo XIV step down in 2027?
PoliticsForecast onlyLive data
Delphi’s forecast
Since shared. Yes 2.3% → 0.7%, No 97.8% → 99.3%
- Yes0.7%$0.01
- No99.3%$0.99
Forecast only. Not tradable.
This resolves too far out for us to open a market on it. The odds stand. You can still create this market yourself.
Forecast reasoning
Pope Leo XIV underwent successful lung cancer surgery in October 2026 with no further treatment needed, and has resumed papal duties including leading World Youth Day in August 2027, with no public resignation announcements as of late October. The 1% probability reflects the base rate for papal resignations rather than specific health concerns, since his cancer was localized and he has shown no intention to step down. Resolution requires voluntary abdication within the January 2027–January 20...