Will Pope Leo XIV step down in 2027?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes1.1%$0.01
- No98.9%$0.99
This resolves too far out for us to open a market on it. The odds stand. You can still create this market yourself.
Forecast reasoning
Pope Leo XIV resigned on October 17, 2026, four days after lung cancer surgery, making a 2027 step-down impossible; the 1% reflects only residual uncertainty about whether his resignation technically occurred before or after the year boundary.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if Pope Leo XIV ceases to hold the office of Pope for any reason — including formal resignation or abdication publicly announced by the Holy See — strictly after 2027-01-01T05:00:00Z and at or before 2028-01-01T13:00:00Z. - "No": Wins if Pope Leo XIV does not cease to hold the office of Pope for any such reason within that same window. Clarifications: - A papal vacancy caused by death does not satisfy the "Yes" condition; only a voluntary stepping-down or formal abdication counts as "stepping down" for the purposes of this market. - The window for this market is strictly after 2027-01-01T05:00:00Z and at or before 2028-01-01T13:00:00Z.
Jan 1, 2028, 5:00 AM UTC