Will US inflation (CPI) cool in October 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick25.8%$0.26
- No74.3%$0.74
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Forecast reasoning
CPI rose to 3.7% year-over-year in September from 3.4% in August, driven by a 9.1% surge in gasoline prices, making a meaningful decline toward the Fed's 2% target unlikely by October. The October CPI report releases November 10, with 23 days of trading remaining to assess whether energy-driven inflation proves durable or transitory.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the BLS CPI-U headline year-over-year percentage change for October 2026, published in the official BLS CPI news release strictly after 2026-10-04T13:52:49.349Z and at or before 2026-11-10T13:30:00.000Z, is strictly lower than the BLS CPI-U headline year-over-year percentage change for September 2026 published in the official BLS CPI news release on October 14, 2026. - "No": Wins if the BLS CPI-U headline year-over-year percentage change for October 2026, published in the official BLS CPI news release strictly after 2026-10-04T13:52:49.349Z and at or before 2026-11-10T13:30:00.000Z, is equal to or greater than the BLS CPI-U headline year-over-year percentage change for September 2026 published in the official BLS CPI news release on October 14, 2026. Clarifications: - "Cooling" is defined as a decrease in the headline CPI-U year-over-year percentage change: October 2026 YoY % < September 2026 YoY %. Both figures are taken from the initial BLS release for each respective month; any subsequent revisions are not considered. - If the BLS October 2026 CPI release is delayed beyond 2026-11-10T13:30:00.000Z, the market is unresolvable under these criteria.
Nov 10, 2026, 1:30 PM UTC