Will US CPI inflation (YoY) cool in October 2026 (reported Nov 10, 2026)?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes, lower than 3.7%your pick26.8%$0.27
- No, same or higher73.3%$0.73
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Forecast reasoning
TD Securities projects October headline CPI will rise 0.30% month-over-month, down from September's 0.65%, suggesting cooling; however, the Cleveland Fed's nowcast estimates October YoY inflation at 3.75%, slightly above September's 3.7%, making the sub-3.7% threshold difficult to clear. The 27% probability reflects conflicting signals between month-over-month moderation and year-over-year stickiness, with the official October CPI report due November 10.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes, lower than 3.7%": Wins if the BLS CPI-U (All Urban Consumers) 12-month percent change (not seasonally adjusted) for October 2026, as reported in the official BLS CPI news release published strictly after 2026-10-24T15:38:55.217Z and at or before 2026-11-10T21:30:00.000Z, is strictly less than 3.7%. - "No, same or higher": Wins if the BLS CPI-U (All Urban Consumers) 12-month percent change (not seasonally adjusted) for October 2026, as reported in the official BLS CPI news release published strictly after 2026-10-24T15:38:55.217Z and at or before 2026-11-10T21:30:00.000Z, is equal to or greater than 3.7%. Clarifications: - The reference figure is the all-items CPI-U 12-month percent change before seasonal adjustment for the reference month of October 2026, as stated in the BLS headline release. The baseline for comparison is 3.7%, which was the September 2026 reading reported on October 14, 2026.
Nov 10, 2026, 1:30 PM UTC