Will universal basic income arrive in the United States before 2035?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick1.7%$0.02
- No98.3%$0.98
We could not pin down how this would settle, so there is no market to trade. The odds stand.
Forecast reasoning
Despite Rep. Tlaib introducing the BOOST Act in November 2025 proposing $250 monthly payments to working-age adults, the bill has stalled at committee referral with no votes or passage as of September 2026. Multiple pilot programs exist across 30+ jurisdictions, but no federal universal basic income meeting all criteria has been enacted, and the 8-year timeline to resolution makes passage unlikely without major legislative momentum.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if, strictly after 2026-10-03T23:17:45.151Z and at or before 2034-12-31T23:00:00.000Z, a federal U.S. law or executive program implementing a national UBI is signed into law or formally enacted and goes into effect, providing unconditional, recurring cash payments to all or substantially all U.S. adults without means-testing or work requirements. - "No": Wins if no such qualifying federal UBI law or executive program has been signed into law or formally enacted and gone into effect at or before 2034-12-31T23:00:00.000Z. Clarifications: - "Universal basic income" (UBI) is defined here as a federal U.S. government program that provides regular, unconditional cash payments to all or substantially all U.S. adults regardless of income, employment status, or wealth — with no means-testing and no work requirements. State-level, local, or privately funded pilot programs do not qualify, nor do targeted programs restricted to specific income brackets or demographic groups (e.g., expanded child tax credits or earned income tax credits).
Dec 31, 2034, 11:00 PM UTC