“Will Eurostat's first full Oct 2026 euro-area all-items HICP annual rate be ≥3.9%, published by 2026-11-18 17:00 UTC? (Excludes Nov 4 flash; NO if absent by cutoff)” on Delphi

Will Eurostat's first full Oct 2026 euro-area all-items HICP annual rate be ≥3.9%, published by 2026-11-18 17:00 UTC? (Excludes Nov 4 flash; NO if absent by cutoff)

EconomicsForecast onlyLive data

Delphi’s forecast

Yes, ≥3.9%96.3%$0.96
No, <3.9% or absent3.8%$0.04

Forecast only. Not tradable.

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Forecast reasoning

The flash estimate released November 4 showed euro-area annual HICP at 4.0%, exceeding the 3.9% threshold. The full October data is scheduled for release November 18 before the 17:00 UTC cutoff, making publication virtually certain based on Eurostat's consistent release schedule.