Will Netanyahu lose the 2026 Israeli election (his bloc fail to form a government)?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes, Netanyahu losesyour pick46.3%$0.46
- No, Netanyahu wins53.7%$0.54
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Forecast reasoning
The estimate rests on 10 recent sources, weighed against the base rate for events of this kind inside the market's window.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes, Netanyahu loses": Wins if, strictly after 2026-10-25T18:10:35.212Z and at or before 2026-10-27T06:00:00.000Z, credible official or news-wire reporting confirms that Netanyahu's bloc has failed to secure a majority (61 or more seats) in the 26th Knesset based on the October 27, 2026 Israeli legislative election results, such that his bloc cannot form a government. - "No, Netanyahu wins": Wins if, strictly after 2026-10-25T18:10:35.212Z and at or before 2026-10-27T06:00:00.000Z, credible official or news-wire reporting confirms that Netanyahu's bloc has secured a majority (61 or more seats) in the 26th Knesset based on the October 27, 2026 Israeli legislative election results, positioning his bloc to form a government. Clarifications: - "Netanyahu's bloc" refers to the combined seat count of Likud and its allied right-wing and ultra-Orthodox parties (including but not limited to Shas, UTJ, Otzma Yehudit, and Religious Zionist Party) as projected or confirmed from the October 27, 2026 Knesset election results. Exit polls and near-final vote counts published within the settlement window are sufficient; official certified results are not required. - Because the Israeli Central Elections Committee typically releases preliminary results and major broadcasters publish exit polls on election night, results available by 2026-10-27T06:00:00.000Z are expected to be sufficient to resolve this market. If only exit polls are available and they are contradictory or inconclusive, resolution should be based on the most credible available data at that time.
Oct 26, 2026, 10:00 PM UTC