Will it snow on Christmas Day (Dec 25, 2026) in Amherst, MA?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick11.8%$0.12
- No88.3%$0.88
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Forecast reasoning
El Niño is suppressing New England snow chances this winter, and Amherst has seen snow on December 25 in only 5 of 133 years on record. A December 25 forecast shows 74% precipitation odds, but temperatures near freezing make snow uncertain rather than likely.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if any measurable snowfall (trace amounts do not qualify; at least 0.1 inches must be recorded) is observed at or near Amherst, MA strictly after 2026-12-25T05:00:00Z and at or before 2026-12-26T05:00:00Z, as reported in official NWS daily hydrometeorological summaries, NOAA/NCEI station records for the Amherst, MA Cooperative Observer (COOP) station, or corroborating local weather station data. - "No": Wins if no measurable snowfall (less than 0.1 inches, including trace amounts or zero) is recorded at or near Amherst, MA during the same window. Clarifications: - The observation window is strictly after 2026-12-25T05:00:00Z and at or before 2026-12-26T05:00:00Z (midnight-to-midnight local Christmas Day in Amherst, MA, expressed in UTC). - "Measurable snowfall" means at least 0.1 inches of new snowfall recorded for the period; a "trace" (T) entry in official records does not satisfy the "Yes" condition.
Dec 26, 2026, 5:00 AM UTC