Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick21.8%$0.22
- No78.3%$0.78
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Forecast reasoning
Harry Kane remains the betting favorite at 1/3 odds as of October 23, with Lamine Yamal at 17/4, despite Yamal's World Cup victory with Spain and La Liga Player of the Season award. Kane's 36 goals in 31 games for Bayern Munich and European Golden Shoe edge Yamal's 24 goals and 17 assists, though Yamal could become the youngest Ballon d'Or winner ever at 19. The ceremony is in 2 days on October 26, with all votes already cast as of September 28.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if Lamine Yamal is officially declared the winner of the 2026 Men's Ballon d'Or at the ceremony held strictly after 2026-10-24T01:30:39.012Z and at or before 2026-10-27T04:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if a different player is officially declared the winner of the 2026 Men's Ballon d'Or at the ceremony held strictly after 2026-10-24T01:30:39.012Z and at or before 2026-10-27T04:00:00.000Z, or if the award is cancelled, not presented, or no winner is declared within that window. Clarifications: - The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled for 26 October 2026 at 19:00 UTC (20:00 BST) at the London Palladium, London, presented by France Football and co-organised by UEFA. The winner refers solely to the Men's Ballon d'Or, not any other category (e.g., Ballon d'Or Féminin, Kopa Trophy).
Oct 26, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC