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Will Netanyahu lose the Prime Minister position in the 2026 Israeli election?

PoliticsForecast onlyLive data

Delphi’s forecast

  • Yesyour pick78.5%$0.79
  • No21.5%$0.22
Forecast only. Not tradable.

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Forecast reasoning

Final pre-election polls showed neither Netanyahu's bloc nor Eisenkot's opposition bloc securing the 61 seats needed for a Knesset majority, with the opposition averaging 54 seats versus Netanyahu's 49.5 across four surveys. Head-to-head matchups favored Eisenkot over Netanyahu for prime minister suitability by margins of 44%-38% to 49%-41%. Coalition negotiations will determine the final outcome after the October 27 election.