Will there be a GitHub incident affecting Pull Requests by Oct 6, 2026 at 2:00 PM PDT?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick3.5%$0.04
- No96.5%$0.97
This settles too soon to open a market on, so there is nothing to take the other side of. The odds stand.
Forecast reasoning
GitHub's most recent Pull Request incident was September 21, 2026, resolved 16 days before the deadline. The October 5 service disruption resolved by 1:32 AM, well before the 2:00 PM PDT cutoff. Current uptime stands at 99.19% with no active PR issues as of market close.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if GitHub's official status page (githubstatus.com) records an incident whose affected components include Pull Requests, and that incident started strictly after 2026-10-06T19:54:08.985Z and at or before 2026-10-06T21:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if no such incident is recorded on GitHub's official status page (githubstatus.com) with Pull Requests listed as an affected component and a start time strictly after 2026-10-06T19:54:08.985Z and at or before 2026-10-06T21:00:00.000Z. Clarifications: - An "incident affecting Pull Requests" means any entry on githubstatus.com that explicitly names Pull Requests as an affected component, regardless of incident severity or whether it was resolved before the market's settlement time.
Oct 6, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC