Will Vinod Khosla apologize for his tweets siding with Cognition over Factory by Oct 12, 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes6.3%$0.06
- Noyour pick93.8%$0.94
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Forecast reasoning
Khosla publicly sided with Cognition on Sept 30, calling Factory a "struggling second tier competitor," but has shown no indication of apologizing in the 11 days before resolution. His pattern of doubling down on public disputes makes a reversal unlikely.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if Vinod Khosla publishes a post or statement on an official public channel (including but not limited to his X/Twitter account @vkhosla, or an official Khosla Ventures communication) strictly after 2026-10-01T07:00:00Z and at or before 2026-10-12T07:00:00Z, in which he explicitly apologizes for, retracts, or expresses regret specifically about the tweets in which he sided with Cognition over Factory (the posts made on or around September 30, 2026, including calling Factory a "struggling second tier competitor"). - "No": Wins if no such apology, retraction, or expression of regret specific to those Cognition-vs-Factory tweets is published on any of Khosla's official public channels strictly after 2026-10-01T07:00:00Z and at or before 2026-10-12T07:00:00Z. Clarifications: - A generic or unrelated expression of regret (e.g., a broad statement that he is "sometimes wrong" not referencing the Cognition/Factory dispute) does not qualify as an apology for this market. The apology must explicitly reference the Cognition-vs-Factory tweets, the characterization of Factory as a "struggling second tier competitor," or the broader dispute between the two companies that arose in late September 2026.
Oct 12, 2026, 7:00 AM UTC