Will Eisenkot beat Netanyahu in the 2026 Israeli elections?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes, Eisenkot winsyour pick1.8%$0.02
- No, Eisenkot does not win98.3%$0.98
The forecaster strongly favors one outcome, so we can’t open a market for this question. You can still create this market yourself.
Forecast reasoning
Eisenkot's bloc leads Netanyahu's in most recent polls by 1-6 seats, but both fall short of the 61-seat majority needed to form a government independently. Coalition-building dynamics and the bloc's refusal to work with Arab parties make Netanyahu's experience in government formation a decisive advantage despite trailing in seat projections.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes, Eisenkot wins": Wins if, strictly after 2026-10-23T07:23:27.681Z and at or before 2026-10-27T06:00:00.000Z, credible initial results or official projections from the 2026 Israeli legislative election confirm that Eisenkot's party bloc has won more Knesset seats than Netanyahu's Likud-led bloc, and Eisenkot is the leader positioned to form the next governing coalition (i.e., is recommended by the President as Prime Minister-designate or leads the largest bloc in official or widely-reported preliminary results). - "No, Eisenkot does not win": Wins if, strictly after 2026-10-23T07:23:27.681Z and at or before 2026-10-27T06:00:00.000Z, credible initial results or official projections confirm that Eisenkot does not lead the largest bloc and is not positioned to form the next government — including if Netanyahu's bloc wins more seats, if no results are yet available, or if the outcome is inconclusive within the window. Clarifications: - Because Israelis vote for party lists and not directly for prime minister, "Eisenkot wins" is interpreted as Eisenkot's Yashar-led bloc securing more Knesset seats than Netanyahu's Likud-led bloc and Eisenkot being the leading candidate to form a government, based on the best available official or widely-reported preliminary results published by 2026-10-27T06:00:00.000Z UTC. - Note: Israeli polling stations close at approximately 22:00 local time on October 27, 2026 (around 19:00 UTC), which is after the settlement window closes at 06:00 UTC on October 27. If no election results are available within the window, "No, Eisenkot does not win" resolves as the outcome, as the winning condition for "Yes" cannot be confirmed.
Oct 26, 2026, 10:00 PM UTC