Will Manchester United sack their manager (Michael Carrick) before December 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes27.0%$0.27
- No73.0%$0.73
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Forecast reasoning
Michael Carrick faces a 42-day window to survive after Manchester United's worst start in 40 years (1 win in 7 league games), with club leadership repeatedly deciding against immediate dismissal despite mounting pressure and replacement options like Antonio Conte reportedly in contact. The 27% probability reflects INEOS's stated preference to avoid reactionary sacking and give Carrick time to improve results, balanced against him being the betting favorite to be the first Premier League manag...
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if Manchester United officially announce that Michael Carrick has ceased to hold the position of head coach/manager for any reason (sacking, mutual termination, resignation, or any other departure) strictly after 2026-10-14T07:38:39.729Z and at or before 2026-11-30T20:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if Michael Carrick remains the Manchester United head coach/manager continuously through 2026-11-30T20:00:00.000Z, with no official announcement of his departure during that interval.
Nov 30, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC