Will there be rain during Durga Puja 2026 (Oct 16–21)?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick82.5%$0.83
- No17.5%$0.18
This quote has expired. Ask again for a live price.
Forecast reasoning
Multiple weather forecasts predict rainfall during Durga Puja, with the India Meteorological Department forecasting 11.7-26.9mm across October 16-21 and other models showing rain on 3-4 of the 6 days. The resolution only requires rain to occur at any point during the festival period, a relatively low threshold that most forecasts clear.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if measurable precipitation (rainfall ≥ 0.1 mm or any non-zero recorded precipitation) is observed at any official weather station covering Kolkata, West Bengal, on at least one day strictly after 2026-10-15T18:30:00Z and at or before 2026-10-21T18:30:00Z. - "No": Wins if no measurable precipitation (zero recorded rainfall) is observed at all official weather stations covering Kolkata, West Bengal, on every day strictly after 2026-10-15T18:30:00Z and at or before 2026-10-21T18:30:00Z. Clarifications: - "Rain" means any measurable precipitation (≥ 0.1 mm) recorded at an official or reputable weather monitoring station serving the Kolkata metropolitan area during the observation window. - The observation window runs strictly after 2026-10-15T18:30:00Z and at or before 2026-10-21T18:30:00Z, corresponding to the Durga Puja 2026 festival period (Oct 16–21).
Oct 21, 2026, 6:30 PM UTC