Will the price of eggs decrease by more than 5% in November 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick1.0%$0.01
- No99.0%$0.99
The forecaster strongly favors one outcome, so we can’t open a market for this question. You can still create this market yourself.
Forecast reasoning
Egg prices collapsed 21% in one week through October 15, falling to $0.36/dozen wholesale, with USDA forecasts lowered for Q4 2026 due to increased production. November would need a 5% decline from September's $2.27/dozen retail price to resolve Yes, but the 13-day window to November 1 trading close leaves minimal time for such a move given recent stabilization signals.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the BLS Average Price Data series APU0000708111 (Eggs, Grade A, Large, per doz., U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted) shows a month-over-month decrease of more than 5% in the most recent monthly figure published strictly after 2026-10-15T14:40:33Z and at or before 2026-11-01T15:00:00Z, relative to the immediately preceding month's published figure. - "No": Wins if no BLS Average Price Data release for series APU0000708111 published strictly after 2026-10-15T14:40:33Z and at or before 2026-11-01T15:00:00Z shows a month-over-month decrease of more than 5%, or if no new monthly figure for that series is published within that window. Clarifications: - The month-over-month percentage change is calculated as: ((new month value − prior month value) / prior month value) × 100. A decrease of more than 5% means this figure is below −5.00%. - If no new BLS monthly release for series APU0000708111 falls strictly after 2026-10-15T14:40:33Z and at or before 2026-11-01T15:00:00Z, "No" wins by default, as the November 2026 egg price data cannot be confirmed within the settlement window.
Nov 1, 2026, 7:00 AM UTC