Will a streaming film win Best Picture at the 2027 Oscars (99th Academy Awards)?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick6.8%$0.07
- No93.2%$0.93
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Forecast reasoning
Netflix's "La Bola Negra" is the only streaming contender among the top three predicted nominees, with prediction markets giving it 11-19% odds as of late October 2026. While streaming films remain rare Best Picture winners—only Apple TV+'s "CODA" has won since eligibility opened in 2022—"La Bola Negra" won the Toronto People's Choice Award, which has historically preceded four of the last 16 Best Picture winners. The 7% probability reflects that theatrical releases dominate frontrunner ranki...
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the film announced as the Academy Award for Best Picture winner at the 99th Academy Awards ceremony — held strictly after 2026-10-22T13:44:26.052Z and at or before 2027-03-14T16:00:00Z — had its primary theatrical or public release distribution through a streaming platform (e.g., Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, Apple TV+, Disney+, Max, or a comparable SVOD/AVOD service), rather than through a traditional theatrical-first studio release. - "No": Wins if the Academy Award for Best Picture announced at the 99th Academy Awards ceremony — held strictly after 2026-10-22T13:44:26.052Z and at or before 2027-03-14T16:00:00Z — was won by a film whose primary release was a traditional theatrical distribution, not a streaming platform. Clarifications: - A film is considered a "streaming film" if it was made available to the public primarily through a subscription or ad-supported streaming service (e.g., Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, Apple TV+, Disney+, Max) as its principal release strategy, even if it had a limited or qualifying theatrical run. A film with a wide theatrical release by a traditional studio distributor is not a streaming film, even if it later became available on a streaming platform. - The Best Picture winner is determined by the official announcement made by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) at the 99th Academy Awards ceremony on March 14, 2027.
Mar 14, 2027, 8:00 AM UTC