Will Bellingham have ≥1 shot on target vs FC Barcelona on Oct 25, 2026 (regular time + stoppage only)?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes48.8%$0.49
- No51.2%$0.51
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Forecast reasoning
Bellingham starts for Real Madrid in the No. 10 role against Barcelona tomorrow and projects 0.85 shots on target with a 40% recent hit rate for 1+ shots on target, though bookmakers pricing "over 0.5 shots on target" at -147 suggests closer to even odds than the 49% probability indicates.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if official post-match player statistics for the LaLiga match between FC Barcelona and Real Madrid played on 2026-10-25 confirm that Jude Bellingham recorded at least 1 shot on target strictly after 2026-10-24T15:02:05.113Z and at or before 2026-10-26T04:00:00.000Z, counting only actions taken during regular time and stoppage time (i.e., excluding extra time and penalty shootouts). - "No": Wins if official post-match player statistics for the same match confirm that Jude Bellingham recorded 0 shots on target during regular time and stoppage time within the same window. Clarifications: - A "shot on target" is defined as any attempt that either goes into the goal or would have gone in if not blocked by the goalkeeper or another defender, consistent with standard football statistical tracking used by the designated data providers. - If Bellingham does not appear in the match (e.g., absent from the squad or does not play any minutes), his shots on target total is 0, and "No" wins.
Oct 25, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
