Will the FOMC policy statement of Dec 9, 2026 record at least one dissenting vote?
EconomicsForecast onlyLive data
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick39.3%$0.39
- No60.8%$0.61
Forecast only. Not tradable.
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Forecast reasoning
Recent FOMC meetings show a pattern of dissents, with two dissenters at October's meeting and individual market odds suggesting Christopher Waller at 35% and Beth Hammack at 18% likely to dissent in December. The broader market assigns 27% probability to at least one dissent (14.4% for one, 8.3% for two, 2.8% for three), though some sources show higher estimates around 40%, reflecting uncertainty over whether hawkish members will continue pushing for rate increases.
