Will more beer be sold at Oktoberfest 2026 in Munich than at Oktoberfest 2025 (~6.5 million liters)?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes9.8%$0.10
- No90.3%$0.90
We could not pin down how this would settle, so there is no market to trade. The odds stand.
Forecast reasoning
Despite higher visitor attendance through late September 2026, beer sales declined 1.4% compared to 2025, making it unlikely the final total will exceed 6.7 million liters. Historical data shows 2025 already sold approximately 6.71 million liters, setting a high bar that the current downward consumption trend suggests won't be cleared by October 4.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the total beer consumption figure for Oktoberfest 2026, as reported in the City of Munich's official closing report for the 2026 festival, is greater than 6.5 million liters (the 2025 estimate by Oktoberfest tent operators). - "No": Wins if the total beer consumption figure for Oktoberfest 2026, as reported in the City of Munich's official closing report for the 2026 festival, is 6.5 million liters or fewer. Clarifications: - Beer consumption is measured in one-liter Maß servings (liters of festival beer) as estimated by Oktoberfest tent operators and published in the City of Munich's official post-festival closing report for Oktoberfest 2026. The relevant window is the full 2026 festival (September 19–October 4, 2026); only the final total reported at close of festival counts, not interim or midpoint figures. - The 2025 baseline is approximately 6.5 million liters, as confirmed by the City of Munich's official closing report for Oktoberfest 2025.
Oct 4, 2026, 9:59 PM UTC