Will FC Barcelona vs Real Madrid on Oct 25, 2026 end in a draw after regular time (no extra time or penalties)?
Delphi’s forecast
- Draw17.3%$0.17
- Not a Draw82.8%$0.83
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Forecast reasoning
Barcelona and Real Madrid drew 0-0 in their most recent meeting on October 25, 2026, but historical data shows no draws in their last 13 league meetings and Barcelona's perfect 9-0-0 start to the season, keeping draw probability at the base rate of 17%.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Draw": Wins if the FC Barcelona vs Real Madrid La Liga Matchday 10 match played at Spotify Camp Nou on October 25, 2026 (kicking off at 20:00 UTC) ends with both teams level after 90 minutes of regular time (including stoppage time), with the final scoreline showing equal goals for each side, and the result is confirmed strictly after 2026-10-25T15:10:31.996Z and at or before 2026-10-26T04:00:00.000Z. - "Not a Draw": Wins if the same match ends with one team having scored more goals than the other after 90 minutes of regular time (including stoppage time), resulting in a winner, and the result is confirmed strictly after 2026-10-25T15:10:31.996Z and at or before 2026-10-26T04:00:00.000Z. Clarifications: - Only the result after 90 minutes of regular time (plus referee-added stoppage time) counts; any outcome determined by extra time or a penalty shootout is disregarded. - If the match is abandoned, postponed, or not played within the resolution window, neither outcome is resolved on this basis.
Oct 25, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC