Will a new Star Wars game be announced at The Game Awards 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick4.2%$0.04
- No95.9%$0.96
We could not pin down how this would settle, so there is no market to trade. The odds stand.
Forecast reasoning
Two Star Wars games were announced at The Game Awards 2025, but no official Star Wars announcements have been confirmed for 2026 despite unverified rumors about a potential Jedi 3 reveal. The 4% probability reflects a low base rate absent concrete evidence of planned announcements in the 51 days until the December 10 ceremony.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if a new Star Wars video game (not previously announced) is officially announced during The Game Awards 2026 broadcast — including its pre-show — strictly after 2026-10-20T15:06:05.540Z and at or before 2026-12-10T16:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if no new Star Wars video game is officially announced during The Game Awards 2026 broadcast — including its pre-show — in that same window. Clarifications: - An "announcement" requires an official reveal by the developer, publisher, or Lucasfilm Games during the live TGA 2026 broadcast or pre-show (trailers, world premieres, or stage segments aired as part of the event). Social media posts or press releases not tied to the broadcast do not qualify. - A game counts as "new" only if it had not been publicly announced before the broadcast begins; ports, remasters, DLC, or updates to already-announced titles do not qualify unless they constitute a fully new, previously unannounced game entry in the Star Wars franchise.
Dec 10, 2026, 8:00 AM UTC