Will the maximum temperature in Lisbon exceed 25°C on Oct 10, 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes56.5%$0.57
- No43.5%$0.44
This quote has expired. Ask again for a live price.
Forecast reasoning
Multiple weather forecasts for October 10 predict highs between 28-29°C, exceeding the 25°C threshold, though one forecast shows only 24°C and another shows exactly 25°C, creating uncertainty. Historical data shows the average high for this date is 23.4°C with a record of 31°C, suggesting temperatures above 25°C are possible but not typical. The conflicting forecasts and modest historical average support a probability slightly above 50%.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the official recorded maximum air temperature in Lisbon strictly after 2026-10-09T23:00:00Z and at or before 2026-10-10T23:00:00Z exceeds 25°C (i.e., is greater than 25.0°C). - "No": Wins if the official recorded maximum air temperature in Lisbon strictly after 2026-10-09T23:00:00Z and at or before 2026-10-10T23:00:00Z is 25°C or below (i.e., does not exceed 25.0°C). Clarifications: - The maximum temperature is the highest recorded air temperature at the primary Lisbon meteorological station (Lisbon/Humberto Delgado Airport, LPPT) as published in official daily observations for October 10, 2026 local time (Europe/Lisbon). The measurement window covers the calendar day of October 10, 2026 in local Lisbon time, bounded by the interval strictly after 2026-10-09T23:00:00Z and at or before 2026-10-10T23:00:00Z.
Oct 10, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC