Will Italy's Cruscotto degli scioperi report a national adhesion rate above 1.0% for the general strike of 4 Dec 2026?
PoliticsForecast onlyLive data
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes, above 1.0%your pick10.0%$0.10
- No, 1.0% or below90.0%$0.90
Forecast only. Not tradable.
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Forecast reasoning
A nationwide general strike is scheduled for December 4, 2026, organized by multiple unions across public and private sectors, but no adhesion data has been published by Cruscotto degli scioperi or other official sources as of November 12. Historical Italian general strikes rarely exceed 1.0% adhesion rates, and the 10% probability reflects the low base rate for such thresholds combined with uncertainty about final reporting before the market closes on December 4.
