Best Buy guided for Q3 comparable sales of 1.0%-3.0% on August 27, 2026, placing the 3.0% threshold at the high end of expectations. Q2 exceeded guidance at 4.1%, but Q3 FY2026 grew only 2.7%, suggesting seasonal deceleration. The 35% probability reflects that hitting exactly the upper bound requires Best Buy to match its best recent quarter while guidance implies a wider range of outcomes.