Will the Dallas Fed Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey production index for October 2026 be at or above 20.0?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes, at or above 20.041.8%$0.42
- No, below 20.058.3%$0.58
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Forecast reasoning
One source reports the October 2026 production index at 19.0, just below the 20.0 threshold, while the official Dallas Fed release is scheduled for October 26, 2026—five days away. September's index reached 29.5, but the October reading's proximity to the threshold and conflicting publication timing create uncertainty that pulls the probability to 42%.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes, at or above 20.0": Wins if the Dallas Fed Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey production index (current conditions, diffusion index) for the October 2026 survey period is reported as 20.0 or higher in the official release published strictly after 2026-10-21T23:02:20.665Z and at or before 2026-10-26T22:30:00.000Z. - "No, below 20.0": Wins if the Dallas Fed Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey production index (current conditions, diffusion index) for the October 2026 survey period is reported as a value strictly below 20.0 in the official release published strictly after 2026-10-21T23:02:20.665Z and at or before 2026-10-26T22:30:00.000Z. Clarifications: - The production index used for settlement is the current-conditions (not future expectations) diffusion index for production/output as published in the Dallas Fed's official October 2026 TMOS report. If the Dallas Fed publishes a revised figure before 2026-10-26T22:30:00.000Z, the most recently published figure within that window is used.
Oct 26, 2026, 2:30 PM UTC