Will Italy win Euro 2028?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick4.2%$0.04
- No95.8%$0.96
We could not pin down how this would settle, so there is no market to trade. The odds stand.
Forecast reasoning
Italy's 4% probability reflects their recent World Cup qualification failure and mixed Nations League form, offset somewhat by bookmaker odds ranging from 16/1 to 20/1 that suggest slightly higher chances. Euro 2028 qualifying has not yet begun, making Italy's path to the tournament uncertain at this early stage.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if Italy is officially declared the UEFA Euro 2028 champion — i.e., Italy wins the Euro 2028 final — with the final occurring strictly after 2026-10-01T10:50:12.195Z and the result officially declared at or before 2028-07-11T16:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if, by 2028-07-11T16:00:00.000Z, the UEFA Euro 2028 champion is officially declared and Italy is not that champion, or if Italy does not participate in or reach the final. Clarifications: - The UEFA Euro 2028 final is scheduled for Sunday, 9 July 2028 at Wembley Stadium, London, kicking off at 18:00 CEST (16:00 UTC). The official champion is the team declared winner of that match (including any extra time and penalty shootout).
Jul 9, 2028, 4:00 PM UTC