Will the USA launch a ground invasion of Iran by December 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes3.6%$0.04
- No96.4%$0.96
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Forecast reasoning
Trump ruled out ground troops in Iran on October 16, 2026, stating he has "no plans" to deploy them. Despite eight months of active conflict since February 2026, no ground invasion has occurred or been authorized. With only 75 days until the December 2026 deadline and Trump's explicit rejection of ground operations, the 4% reflects residual tail risk of unexpected escalation.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if, strictly after 2026-10-05T04:39:02.744Z and at or before 2027-01-01T05:00:00.000Z, the United States military initiates a ground invasion of Iran — defined as the confirmed deployment of U.S. ground combat forces onto Iranian sovereign territory in an offensive military operation, with that deployment officially acknowledged or credibly confirmed by U.S. government sources or major international news organizations. - "No": Wins if no such ground invasion is confirmed to have begun within the window strictly after 2026-10-05T04:39:02.744Z and at or before 2027-01-01T05:00:00.000Z. Clarifications: - "Ground invasion" requires physical entry of U.S. ground combat troops into Iranian territory in an offensive capacity; airstrikes, naval operations, cyberattacks, covert special-forces raids of limited scope, or proxy actions alone do not qualify.
Jan 1, 2027, 5:00 AM UTC