Will the UK introduce an exit tax in 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes0.5%$0.01
- No99.5%$1.00
The forecaster strongly favors one outcome, so we can’t open a market for this question. You can still create this market yourself.
Forecast reasoning
The UK government ruled out exit taxes on companies in September 2026 and Treasury officials shut down speculation before the October 28 Budget, which proceeded without introducing an exit tax. No exit tax legislation has received Royal Assent as of late October 2026, with only 68 days remaining until resolution.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the UK Parliament passes legislation formally introducing an exit tax — a deemed-disposal or equivalent charge on unrealised gains triggered by an individual or entity ceasing UK tax residency — that receives Royal Assent strictly after 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z and at or before 2027-01-01T00:00:00Z. - "No": Wins if no such legislation receives Royal Assent within the window above by 2027-01-01T00:00:00Z. Clarifications: - A Budget announcement, consultation document, draft clause, or press report of a proposed exit tax does not satisfy the "Yes" condition; the legislation must have completed parliamentary passage and received Royal Assent within the window. - Pre-existing rules (e.g. the temporary non-residence rule, or exit charges already applicable to trusts and companies ceasing UK residence) do not satisfy the "Yes" condition; the legislation must introduce a new exit charge of the type under active discussion (a deemed-disposal charge on individuals ceasing UK tax residency).
Jan 1, 2027, 12:00 AM UTC