Will Mbappé score ≥1 goal vs Barcelona on Oct 25, 2026 (90 min + stoppage only)?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes47.0%$0.47
- No53.0%$0.53
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Forecast reasoning
Mbappé recovered from a knee injury sustained September 26 and returned to training by October 7, scoring in Real Madrid's October 21 Champions League win just four days before this Clásico. José Mourinho confirmed he will start and is in strong form, though the 47% probability reflects typical variance in single-match goal-scoring outcomes and Barcelona's defensive capabilities.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if Kylian Mbappé scores at least 1 goal for Real Madrid against Barcelona in the LaLiga Matchday 10 El Clásico at Spotify Camp Nou, strictly after 2026-10-24T12:03:48.076Z and at or before 2026-10-26T04:00:00.000Z, counting only goals scored in the 90 minutes of regular time plus referee-added stoppage time (i.e., excluding any extra time or penalty shootout). - "No": Wins if Mbappé scores zero goals under the same conditions — either he plays and does not score, does not appear in the match, or the match is not played within the window. Clarifications: - Goals scored only in the 90 minutes of regulation and any stoppage time added to each half count; goals in extra time or a penalty shootout do not count. - If the match is postponed or cancelled and not played at or before 2026-10-26T04:00:00.000Z, "No" wins.
Oct 25, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC