Will the Fed announce a rate cut at its December 2026 FOMC meeting on Dec 9, 2026?
EconomicsForecast onlyLive data
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick1.5%$0.02
- No98.5%$0.99
Forecast only. Not tradable.
The forecaster strongly favors one outcome, so we can’t open a market for this question. You can still create this market yourself.
Forecast reasoning
Futures markets price 87-88% odds of a 25bp rate hike at the December 9 meeting, with all 101 economists in a Reuters poll forecasting a hike and zero probability assigned to cuts. Recent stronger-than-expected inflation data in October reinforced these expectations, moving hike odds from 72% to 89%.