Will the September US jobs report (released at 8:30am ET on Oct 2, 2026) show nonfarm payrolls above 100,000?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick45.5%$0.46
- No54.5%$0.55
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Forecast reasoning
Recent forecasts predict September nonfarm payrolls at +95,000 to +125,000, with a median around +130,000 but an 11% chance of negative growth. Polymarket data from mid-September showed 48% probability of payrolls exceeding 100,000, while conflicting forecasts—one predicting +95,000 and another +125,000—create uncertainty ahead of the October 2 release.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the BLS Employment Situation release for September 2026 — published strictly after 2026-09-30T12:29:56.116Z and at or before 2026-10-02T12:30:00.000Z — reports total nonfarm payroll employment change of more than 100,000. - "No": Wins if the BLS Employment Situation release for September 2026 — published strictly after 2026-09-30T12:29:56.116Z and at or before 2026-10-02T12:30:00.000Z — reports total nonfarm payroll employment change of exactly 100,000 or fewer. Clarifications: - The nonfarm payroll figure used is the headline total nonfarm payroll employment change (seasonally adjusted) as stated in the initial BLS release; subsequent revisions do not affect settlement.
Oct 2, 2026, 12:30 PM UTC