Will Tokyo's daily high temperature top NYC's on Oct 3, 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick75.5%$0.76
- No24.5%$0.25
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Forecast reasoning
Tokyo's forecasted high of 72°F (22°C) falls short of NYC's 70°F, but central Tokyo areas are predicted to reach 25°C (77°F), exceeding NYC's temperature. The 76% probability reflects uncertainty in which Tokyo measurement will be used for resolution and forecast reliability within one day.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if Tokyo's official daily high temperature for October 3, 2026 (Japan Standard Time) strictly exceeds New York City's official daily high temperature for October 3, 2026 (Eastern Daylight Time), as recorded strictly after 2026-10-02T22:59:34.032Z and at or before 2026-10-04T04:00:00Z. - "No": Wins if Tokyo's official daily high temperature for October 3, 2026 (Japan Standard Time) is less than or equal to New York City's official daily high temperature for October 3, 2026 (Eastern Daylight Time), as recorded strictly after 2026-10-02T22:59:34.032Z and at or before 2026-10-04T04:00:00Z. Clarifications: - "Daily high temperature" for each city is the maximum observed temperature over the full local calendar day of October 3, 2026 (00:00–23:59 in each city's local time zone: JST for Tokyo, EDT for New York City), as reported by official meteorological authorities or major weather data providers. - Temperatures should be compared in the same unit (°C or °F); if sources report in different units, convert to a common unit before comparing.
Oct 4, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC