Will Netanyahu be re-elected as Prime Minister in the Oct 27, 2026 Israeli election?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick1.7%$0.02
- No98.4%$0.98
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Forecast reasoning
Netanyahu's bloc polls at roughly 50–54 seats, 7–11 short of the 61-seat majority needed to form a government, with opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot's bloc nearly tied or slightly ahead. If no bloc reaches 61 seats on October 27, Netanyahu remains as caretaker PM, a scenario one forecast estimates at 69% probability—but the 2% reflects the much lower chance he forms a new governing coalition outright.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if Benjamin Netanyahu is formally sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the formation of a governing coalition resulting from the October 27, 2026 Israeli legislative election, with the swearing-in occurring strictly after 2026-09-30T16:41:03.704Z and at or before the market's settlement time. - "No": Wins if, following the October 27, 2026 Israeli legislative election, another individual (not Benjamin Netanyahu) is formally sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel, or if Netanyahu fails to form a governing coalition and is not sworn in as Prime Minister by the market's settlement time, with this confirmed strictly after 2026-09-30T16:41:03.704Z and at or before the market's settlement time. Clarifications: - "Re-elected as Prime Minister" means Netanyahu receives a presidential mandate to form a government and is subsequently sworn in as Prime Minister following the October 27, 2026 election, as confirmed by official Israeli government announcements or the Israeli Central Elections Committee. - The October 27, 2026 election is a Knesset election; Israel's Prime Minister is determined by coalition formation after results are certified, not by direct popular vote.
Oct 26, 2026, 10:00 PM UTC