Will the world population reach 9 billion by end of 2030?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick0.6%$0.01
- No99.4%$0.99
The forecaster strongly favors one outcome, so we can’t open a market for this question. You can still create this market yourself.
Forecast reasoning
Current world population of 8.3 billion would need to grow by 655 million people over the next 4 years to reach 9 billion by end of 2030, but UN projections estimate 9 billion won't be reached until 2037-2039. At the current growth rate of 0.84% annually (69 million people per year), the population would reach only approximately 8.5 billion by 2030.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the UN World Population Prospects (or its most recent revision available at settlement time) reports or projects the global population as having reached or exceeded 9,000,000,000 (9 billion) at any point strictly after 2026-10-16T21:19:49.817Z and at or before 2030-12-31T23:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if the UN World Population Prospects (or its most recent revision available at settlement time) does not report or project the global population as having reached or exceeded 9,000,000,000 (9 billion) at any point strictly after 2026-10-16T21:19:49.817Z and at or before 2030-12-31T23:00:00.000Z. Clarifications: - "World population" refers to the total global population figure as estimated or projected by the United Nations World Population Prospects; Worldometer's real-time counter (which derives from the same UN data) may be used as a corroborating reference.
Dec 31, 2030, 11:00 PM UTC