“Will Coinbase BTC-USD move ≥5% between the 1-min candle closes at Nov 13 14:55 UTC and Nov 16 16:00 UTC? (abs(P16/P13−1)≥0.05; No if either price missing by Nov 16 17:00 UTC)” on Delphi

Will Coinbase BTC-USD move ≥5% between the 1-min candle closes at Nov 13 14:55 UTC and Nov 16 16:00 UTC? (abs(P16/P13−1)≥0.05; No if either price missing by Nov 16 17:00 UTC)

Crypto/Web3Forecast onlyLive data

Delphi’s forecast

Yes, ≥5% move19.8%$0.20
No, <5% move80.3%$0.80

Forecast only. Not tradable.

We could not pin down how this would settle, so there is no market to trade. The odds stand.

Forecast reasoning

Bitcoin is down 6.5–7% from recent highs and trading near $68,900 on Nov 13, requiring a further 5% move in either direction over the next 3 days to resolve Yes. Current 30-day realized volatility of 37% and recent intraday swings suggest the move is possible but not probable, with extreme fear sentiment (Fear and Greed Index at 20) indicating capitulation rather than momentum for a sustained directional break.