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Will a Strait of Hormuz deal be reached by Nov 10, 2026?

PoliticsForecast onlyLive data

Delphi’s forecast

  • Yesyour pick28.5%$0.29
  • No71.5%$0.72
Forecast only. Not tradable.

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Forecast reasoning

A tentative framework was reached November 7 with language points still under discussion and Trump's sign-off pending, but Iran's Supreme National Security Council stated November 6 the strait remains closed until seven conditions are met, and Qatar's 48-hour reciprocal plan submitted November 6 had been accepted by neither side as of that date. Only 4 days remain until the November 10 deadline.