Will Aquiles La Grave win the Boulder, CO mayor election on Nov 3, 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes1.6%$0.02
- No98.5%$0.98
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Forecast reasoning
La Grave is one of six candidates in a ranked-choice voting race against incumbent Mayor Aaron Brockett, with an endorsement from PLAN-Boulder County but limited campaign funding of $14,584 raised as of late September.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if Aquiles La Grave is declared the winner of the City of Boulder mayoral election — including all RCV elimination rounds — by official or unofficial results published strictly after 2026-10-10T03:11:12.560Z and at or before 2026-11-03T15:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if official or unofficial results published strictly after 2026-10-10T03:11:12.560Z and at or before 2026-11-03T15:00:00.000Z confirm that a candidate other than Aquiles La Grave has won the City of Boulder mayoral election after all RCV rounds are complete. Clarifications: - The Boulder mayoral race uses Ranked Choice Voting (RCV); the winner is the candidate who achieves a majority after successive elimination rounds, as tabulated and reported by Boulder County Elections. Unofficial results posted on election night are sufficient; final certified results are not required.
Nov 3, 2026, 7:00 AM UTC