Will a film from a major streaming service be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards (Oscars 2027)?
Delphi’s forecast
Since shared. Yes 47.5% → 47.8%, No 52.5% → 52.3%
- Yesyour pick47.8%$0.48
- No52.3%$0.52
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Forecast reasoning
Multiple streaming films are predicted as 2027 Best Picture nominees, including Netflix's "La Bola Negra" (which won Toronto's People's Choice Award and has strong critical scores of 87 on Rotten Tomatoes and 83 on Metacritic) and Amazon MGM's "Project Hail Mary," making a streaming nomination highly likely despite no streaming film winning Best Picture since CODA in 2021. The 48% probability reflects that while streaming nominations are now mainstream, theatrical films still dominate the cat...
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if at least one film that received its primary release through a major streaming service (including but not limited to Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, Apple TV+, Disney+, Max, Hulu, or Peacock) is included in the official list of Best Picture nominees for the 99th Academy Awards, as announced by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences strictly after 2026-10-19T17:17:21.856Z and at or before 2027-01-21T13:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if no film that received its primary release through a major streaming service is included in the official list of Best Picture nominees for the 99th Academy Awards, as announced by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences strictly after 2026-10-19T17:17:21.856Z and at or before 2027-01-21T13:00:00.000Z. Clarifications: - A film is considered a "major streaming service" release if its primary theatrical or distribution release was on a streaming platform rather than a traditional wide theatrical release; films distributed by streaming services that also received a qualifying theatrical run are included provided the streaming service is the primary rights holder and distributor. - The official Best Picture nominees list is the one formally announced by AMPAS on Oscars Nominations Announcement day (scheduled January 21, 2027).
Jan 21, 2027, 5:00 AM UTC