Will a film from a major streaming service be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards (Oscars 2027)?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick47.5%$0.48
- No52.5%$0.53
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Forecast reasoning
Netflix's "La Bola Negra" won the Toronto International Film Festival People's Choice Award, a prize whose past 16 winners have produced 14 Best Picture nominations and four wins. Amazon's "Project Hail Mary" is also predicted as a top-tier contender, while Netflix received a Best Picture nomination as recently as 2025 with "Emilia Pérez."
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if at least one film that received its primary release through a major streaming service (including but not limited to Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, Apple TV+, Disney+, Max, Hulu, or Peacock) is included in the official list of Best Picture nominees for the 99th Academy Awards, as announced by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences strictly after 2026-10-19T17:17:21.856Z and at or before 2027-01-21T13:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if no film that received its primary release through a major streaming service is included in the official list of Best Picture nominees for the 99th Academy Awards, as announced by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences strictly after 2026-10-19T17:17:21.856Z and at or before 2027-01-21T13:00:00.000Z. Clarifications: - A film is considered a "major streaming service" release if its primary theatrical or distribution release was on a streaming platform rather than a traditional wide theatrical release; films distributed by streaming services that also received a qualifying theatrical run are included provided the streaming service is the primary rights holder and distributor. - The official Best Picture nominees list is the one formally announced by AMPAS on Oscars Nominations Announcement day (scheduled January 21, 2027).
Jan 21, 2027, 5:00 AM UTC