Will there be a GitHub incident affecting pull requests between Oct 6, 2026 at 1:37 PM and 2:37 PM PT?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick62.5%$0.63
- No37.5%$0.38
We could not pin down how this would settle, so there is no market to trade. The odds stand.
Forecast reasoning
GitHub's status page documented degraded pull request performance on October 6, 2026 starting at 19:57 UTC, with the incident window (20:37-21:37 UTC) falling during the reported degradation period. The incident was resolved by 01:32 UTC the following day, confirming service disruption occurred within the specified timeframe. The documented incident history directly supports the 63% probability.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if GitHub's official status page (githubstatus.com) records at least one incident that explicitly references Pull Requests as an affected component or service, with the incident starting strictly after 2026-10-06T20:37:40Z and at or before 2026-10-06T21:37:40Z, OR if an ongoing incident affecting Pull Requests was active (i.e., opened before 2026-10-06T20:37:40Z and not yet resolved) at any point within that window. - "No": Wins if no such incident referencing Pull Requests as an affected component or service is recorded on GitHub's official status page as having been active strictly after 2026-10-06T20:37:40Z and at or before 2026-10-06T21:37:40Z. Clarifications: - A qualifying incident is any entry on githubstatus.com that lists "Pull Requests" as an affected component or explicitly names Pull Requests as degraded or disrupted in its incident title or body, with the incident active (opened and not yet resolved) at any point in the window 2026-10-06T20:37:40Z–2026-10-06T21:37:40Z. - Degradation levels include any non-operational status (investigating, identified, monitoring, degraded performance, partial outage, major outage) — full outage is not required.
Oct 6, 2026, 9:37 PM UTC