Will a woman win Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards (2027)?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick4.8%$0.05
- No95.3%$0.95
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Forecast reasoning
Only one woman, Olivia Wilde, appears in current Best Director contention for the 99th Academy Awards, and she's trading at just 1.5–2% to win despite being a top-five contender. Historically, women have won Best Director only 3 times in 96 years, establishing a 3.1% base rate that aligns with this market's 5% probability.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the Academy Award for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards ceremony, held strictly after 2026-10-23T13:57:43.300Z and with the winner announced at or before 2027-03-14T16:00:00.000Z, is awarded to a woman. - "No": Wins if the Academy Award for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards ceremony, held strictly after 2026-10-23T13:57:43.300Z and with the winner announced at or before 2027-03-14T16:00:00.000Z, is awarded to a man or a person who does not identify as a woman. Clarifications: - The winner's gender is determined by how the recipient publicly self-identifies at the time of the award. - If the 99th Academy Awards ceremony is postponed or cancelled such that no Best Director winner is announced at or before 2027-03-14T16:00:00.000Z, neither outcome is satisfied by this criterion.
Mar 14, 2027, 8:00 AM UTC