Will US inflation cool in October 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick15.5%$0.16
- No84.5%$0.85
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Forecast reasoning
September inflation accelerated to 0.6% monthly and 3.7% annually, with energy surging 20.4% year-over-year; Cleveland Fed nowcasts October at 0.27% monthly, suggesting modest cooling, but the low 16% probability reflects that energy volatility and recent momentum make sustained disinflation unlikely before the November 10 data release.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the BLS CPI-U 12-month (year-over-year) percentage change for October 2026, as reported in the official BLS Consumer Price Index news release published strictly after 2026-10-01T16:36:52.470Z and at or before 2026-11-10T13:30:00.000Z, is strictly lower than the BLS CPI-U 12-month percentage change for September 2026. - "No": Wins if the BLS CPI-U 12-month (year-over-year) percentage change for October 2026, as reported in the same release window, is equal to or higher than the BLS CPI-U 12-month percentage change for September 2026. Clarifications: - Both the October 2026 and September 2026 CPI-U 12-month figures are taken from the single BLS Consumer Price Index news release covering October 2026 reference period data, scheduled for November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET (13:30 UTC); if that release is not published within the window, the market is unresolvable. - "Cooling" means a strictly lower not-seasonally-adjusted CPI-U 12-month percentage change for October 2026 versus September 2026, using the figures as first published (not subsequently revised).
Nov 10, 2026, 1:30 PM UTC