Will England beat Croatia by more than 1 goal in the UEFA Nations League on Oct 3, 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes32.0%$0.32
- No68.0%$0.68
We could not pin down how this would settle, so there is no market to trade. The odds stand.
Forecast reasoning
England's 4-2 victory over Croatia in June 2026 and current 4th-place FIFA ranking versus Croatia's 13th suggest attacking capability, but the away fixture in Rijeka and the high bar of winning by more than one goal limit upside. Recent Nations League form and squad selection will be key in the final three days before trading closes.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the official final result of the Croatia vs England UEFA Nations League League A Group 3 match played at Stadion HNK Rijeka on October 3, 2026 shows England winning by a margin of 2 or more goals (e.g., England wins 2–0, 3–1, 3–0, etc.). - "No": Wins if the official final result of that match shows England winning by exactly 1 goal, or England drawing, or Croatia winning by any margin. Clarifications: - The "official final result" refers to the scoreline at the end of 90 minutes plus any added time (i.e., regulation time); extra time or penalty shootouts are not applicable to this competition format and do not count. - A result in which the match is abandoned, postponed, or declared void does not satisfy either criterion above.
Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 PM UTC